Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
